Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 364,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2021 08:36:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending June 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000, a decrease of 51,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week’s


by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2021 08:36:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 364,000, a decrease of 51,000
from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was
256,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 4,000 from 411,000 to 415,000. The 4-week moving average was
392,750, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since
March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,000 from 397,750 to 398,750.
emphasis added

This does not include the 115,267 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 111,778 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 392,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims increased to 3,469,000 (SA) from 3,413,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 5,935,630 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,950,861 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 5,261,991 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,274,108.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.



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