SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Singapore’s economic growth could exceed the upper end of the official 4% to 6% forecast range this year, barring a setback to the global economy, central bank chief Ravi Menon reiterated on Wednesday.

“The broader economy should see a recovery in the second half of this year alongside strengthening global demand and further progress in our vaccination programme,” the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) managing director said in a speech that accompanied the release of the central bank’s annual report.

The Singapore economy has recouped during the first quarter of 2021 the aggregate output loss incurred during the pandemic, Menon said.

Singapore’s trade-reliant economy is officially forecast to grow 4% to 6% this year, recovering from the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, its worst on record.

The city-state is often seen as a bellwether for global growth as international trade dwarfs its domestic economy.