2/2 © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An indication encouraging participation within the U.S. Census lies on a sidewalk in Somerville 2/2 By Joseph Ax (Reuters) – The U.S. Census Bureau on Monday will launch the information that determines whether or not states achieve or lose congressional seats and Electoral Faculty votes, setting the stage for a
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: An indication encouraging participation within the U.S. Census lies on a sidewalk in Somerville
By Joseph Ax
(Reuters) – The U.S. Census Bureau on Monday will launch the information that determines whether or not states achieve or lose congressional seats and Electoral Faculty votes, setting the stage for a pitched battle over redistricting that might reshape political energy in Washington for a decade.
Underneath the U.S. Structure, the 435 seats within the Home of Representatives and the votes within the Electoral Faculty that determines the U.S. president each 4 years are divided among the many 50 states based mostly on inhabitants, with each state receiving a minimum of one congressional seat. The seats are reapportioned each 10 years following the decennial census depend.
Most analysts anticipate that inhabitants development and migration will lead to Solar Belt states gaining Home seats, whereas northern states will possible lose seats.
Texas is projected to be the massive winner with three extra seats, adopted by Florida with two after which Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado, Montana and Oregon with one every, based on an evaluation by the nonpartisan Prepare dinner Political Report based mostly on census estimates.
New York, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Alabama and West Virginia are all anticipated to lose one seat.
The shift in seats to states similar to Texas and Florida, the place Republicans management the statehouses, may very well be sufficient to erase Democrats’ razor-thin majority within the Home. Republicans in each of these states have prior to now engaged in aggressive gerrymandering, the method by which maps are intentionally skewed to profit one occasion over one other.
The information will likely be launched 4 months later than traditional, after the coronavirus pandemic difficult the bureau’s painstaking household-by-household survey final 12 months.
States use the census knowledge to redraw traces each for congressional districts in addition to 1000’s of state legislative seats.
That work can’t be accomplished till the census releases extra exact block-by-block knowledge, which is at present slated for September. The delay has raised considerations about whether or not states can have time to finish redistricting forward of subsequent 12 months’s midterm elections.
The U.S. Supreme Court docket dominated in 2019 that federal courts haven’t any energy to limit political gerrymandering, although racial gerrymandering – which goals to curb the political energy of particular racial or ethnic teams – stays illegal.
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