Feedback on March Present House Gross sales

by Calculated Threat on 4/22/2021 11:36:00 AM Earlier: NAR: Present-House Gross sales Decreased to six.01 million in March Just a few key factors: 1) This was the best gross sales price for March since 2006, and the 4th highest gross sales price for March on file (behind 2004, 2005, and 2006). A few of the


by Calculated Threat on 4/22/2021 11:36:00 AM

Earlier: NAR: Present-House Gross sales Decreased to six.01 million in March

Just a few key factors:

1) This was the best gross sales price for March since 2006, and the 4th highest gross sales price for March on file (behind 2004, 2005, and 2006). A few of the enhance over the past 9 months was in all probability associated to  file low mortgage charges, a transfer away from multi-family leases, sturdy second house shopping for (to flee the high-density cities), a robust inventory market and favorable demographics.

Additionally, the delay within the 2020 shopping for season pushed the seasonally adjusted quantity to very excessive ranges over the winter.   This implies there are going to be some troublesome comparisons within the second half of 2021!


2) Stock may be very low, and was down 28.2% year-over-year (YoY) in March.  Additionally, as housing economist Tom Lawler has famous, the native MLS information exhibits even a bigger decline in energetic stock (the NAR seems to incorporate some pending gross sales in stock). Lawler famous:

“As I’ve famous earlier than, the stock measure in most publicly-released native realtor/MLS reviews excludes listings with pending contracts, however that’s not the case for lots of the reviews despatched to the NAR (known as the “NAR Report!”), Because the center of final Spring stock measures excluding pending listings have fallen way more sharply than stock measures together with such listings, and this latter stock measure understates the decline within the efficient stock of houses on the market over the past a number of months.”

Months-of-supply at 2.1 months is simply above the file low of 1.9 months set in December 2020 and January 2021.  Stock shall be vital to observe in 2021, see: Some ideas on Housing Stock

3) As traditional, housing economist Tom Lawler’s forecast was nearer to the NAR report than the Consensus. The NAR reported 6.01 million SAAR, Lawler estimated the NAR would report 6.02 million SAAR, and the consensus was 6.17 million SAAR.


Click on on graph for bigger picture.

This graph exhibits current house gross sales by month for 2020 and 2021.

The year-over-year comparisons shall be straightforward in Q2, after which troublesome within the second half of the yr.   

The second graph exhibits current house gross sales for every month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), since 2005.

Existing Home Sales NSA
Gross sales NSA in March (484,000) have been 16.3% above gross sales final yr in March (416,000).

This was the best gross sales for March (NSA) since 2006.



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